Prior to Raj Thackeray and Uddhav Thackeray’s possible joint rally against the Shiv Sena of BJP and Eknath Shinde in Mumbai, the Maharashtra government has withdrawn the order implementing Hindi as a third language. The Thackeray brothers have described it as a major victory of Marathi Manush.
In such a situation, the question is now arising whether the two leaders will compete with the BJP and Shinde faction together in the upcoming BMC elections? Posters on the walls of Mumbai are appealing to both Thackeray leaders to unite, so that Bal Thackeray’s legacy can be saved.
However, some political analysts say that Raj Thackeray’s political influence was not the same, and Uddhav will not benefit much by coming with him. Nevertheless, this election has become a fight for do or die for the Uddhav faction, because he has ruled the BMC for the last 25 years.
How much effect Raj Thackeray
Raj Thackeray resigned from Shiv Sena in the year 2005. He alleged that he was humiliated and lowered, especially when Bal Thackeray declared Uddhav Thackeray as his political successor. After this, Raj Thackeray formed the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). In the initial stages, his party showed good impact in urban areas like Mumbai, Thane, Kalyan-Dombivali, Pune and Nashik and political possibilities were seen.
In the 2009 assembly elections, Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) made a brilliant start to win 13 seats and won 5.7 percent vote share. This caused a big loss to the Shiv Sena, whose number of seats decreased by 18 and lost 3.7 percent votes. However, the Shiv Sena returned in the 2014 assembly elections and won three percent more votes with an edge in 19 seats. At the same time, Raj Thackeray’s party MNS was reduced to just one seat.
In the 2019 state elections, MNS reiterated the same performance and in 2024, it could not win a single seat. However, the party recorded 7.1 percent vote share in 36 seats in Mumbai region, which is part of BMC.
In the 2012 municipal elections, MNS performed well in the urban areas of Maharashtra and won 25-40 seats. However, it was not able to maintain them and lost heavy support in the following years due to the defections of the leaders or the inconsistent messages of its supremo. In the 2017 BMC elections, its number declined significantly and the party won only seven seats in 2012 to only seven seats.
His support between Marathi Manush decreased to some extent to some extent due to Raj Thackeray’s deferment. In 2014, MNS announced his support to Narendra Modi. However, in 2019, Raj took a U-turn and called for a “Modi-free India” while holding rallies in support of the Congress-NCP alliance. In 2024, he reversed again and announced his support to Modi.
Do or die fight for both
In the state elections of 2024, while the Shiv Sena led Shinde won 57 seats with 12.5 percent vote share, Uddhav’s Shiv Sena won only 20 seats with 10 percent vote share. Shinde Army won in 36 of 50 face-to-face matches. Uddhav Sena won only 14 of these. Raj Thackeray’s MNS did not win a single seat, he got only 1.6 percent vote share. Shinde won the first round of the fight claiming Bal Thackeray’s legacy.
If BJP and Shinde win BMC, the game for Uddhav and Raj in Maharashtra will end. Partition in the Shiv Sena, in which Eknath Shinde has controlled the party and the official symbol, has put the Thackeray brothers in trouble. Raj is 57 years old and Uddhav is 65 years old. He wants to recover the legacy of Balasaheb and also establish his sons Aditya and Amit in politics.
However, everything for Uddhav and Raj is not over. Uddhav Sena won its half vote share from Mumbai zone, won the second largest vote share of 23.2 percent – which is more than Shiv Sena’s six seats and 17.7 percent vote share. Meanwhile, MNS got 7.1 percent votes, and she can play the role of kingmaker in BMC. After all, it led to the defeat of Maha Vikas Aghadi in three seats in the Mumbai zone.
Thackeray’s strength
The demographics of BMC have changed in the last few years, the increasing number of Gujarati and North Indian voters has promoted BJP’s rise. In the 2017 BMC elections, the BJP removed the Shiv Sena (before partition) as the largest party, which won 82 seats, while the Shiv Sena got 84 seats. MNS won seven seats, Congress won 31, NCP nine and others 14 seats.
More than half of the 82 seats of BJP (43) seats came from wards under North Mumbai and North West Mumbai Lok Sabha seats. In these areas, non-marathi, non-Muslim population is between 45 and 60 percent. BMC has about 20 percent of the Muslim population, which supported the Uddhav Sena in the state elections.
If Uddhav comes out of MVA and joins hands with Raj, then this vote can be returned to Congress and Sharad Pawar as well as AIMIM, Samajwadi Party etc. The strategists hope that Muslim voters will live with Uddhav as they are in the best position to defeat the BJP and Shinde Sena. MNS has about 7-8 percent of the vote share in Mumbai, which can strengthen Uddhav’s hands and tighten the competition. The Shinde Sena does not get as much support in Mumbai as it is found in Thane.
If MNS and Shiv Sena had contested the 2017 BMC elections together, they would have won 118 additional 27 seats against the actual combined number of 91 (84 + 7) with 36 percent vote share, and won a majority on their own. Of course, 28 percent of the joint army vote is no longer alone with Uddhav. Even after considering the performance of the state election, the two brothers have about 30 percent vote share (23 + 7).
According to a survey conducted by the Votewibi Agency, if Raj Thackeray and Uddhav Thackeray come together in the upcoming BMC elections, 52% of Mumbai people are ready to support them. At the same time, Eknath Shinde is seen getting only 26% support. This match is now clearly happening with Balasaheb Thackeray’s legacy.
Shinde is presented to the public as “neglect of Marathi Manush” in front of the public to be taken back in the new power equation of BJP – ie the post of Chief Minister. At the same time, they are also making the increasing domination of Gujarati influence in the state an issue.
Raj Thackeray is also said to be angry with the BJP, especially that the party did not help his son to win the election. Apart from this, he has also expressed displeasure over the BJP’s “Use and Throw” (use and leave) the policy.
On the other hand, the BJP is constantly strengthening its hold in Maharashtra, and it is confident that it can capture the BMC this time, which will end the decades -old dominance of the Thackeray family.
It is clear that the upcoming BMC elections are going to be very decisive for both Thackeray family and BJP.