Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has focused on women, poor and senior citizens in its manifesto for the upcoming Delhi Assembly elections. If we look at the pattern of previous elections, it can be said that this is an absolutely right bet. After all, women have been playing an important role in election after election. They are also arriving in large numbers to vote. Let us explain to you about some patterns of Delhi elections…
gender
According to SBI Research report, more than 18 million women took part in voting in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, inspired by schemes like better education, jobs, housing and sanitation. Besides, schemes like Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana and Mudra Loan also played an important role in BJP’s victory.
According to the report, 60 percent women were in favor of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the 2020 Delhi elections, while only 35 percent women supported BJP. Due to this, AAP got a lead of 25 percent among women. At the same time, among men, 49 percent supported AAP and 43 percent supported BJP. About 46 percent of voters in Delhi are women and 54 percent are men. This means that women were giving a lead of about 12 percent to AAP, while the lead of men was only three percent.
In 2020, AAP secured 54 percent vote share, while BJP got 39 percent and Congress 4 percent. AAP had got an increase of 15 percent in the total vote share.
Religion is also a big factor
Religion is also an important factor. Talking about the electoral voters of Delhi, Hindus are 82 percent, Muslims are 13 percent and Sikhs are 5 percent. In the 2020 elections, 83 percent Muslims supported AAP, while only 3 percent supported BJP. 67 percent of Sikhs supported AAP and 28 percent supported BJP, giving AAP a lead of 39 percent. At the same time, 49 percent Hindu voters supported AAP and 46 percent supported BJP, due to which BJP got a lead of only 3 percent. This means that AAP got 3 percent lead in Hindu votes, 10 percent lead in Muslim votes and 2 percent lead in Sikh votes, giving AAP 15 percent lead in total vote share.
The BJP has accused the AAP of giving shelter to the Rohingyas, who are mainly Muslim migrants from Bangladesh and Myanmar. On the other hand, the AAP has said that it is the failure of Home Minister Amit Shah and the BJP that Bangladesh Illegal immigrants are coming to India from. The Rohingya issue became more heated when Saif Ali Khan was allegedly attacked by a Bangladeshi citizen.
Adopting a soft policy of Hindutva, AAP has announced schemes for priests, so that it can maintain its support among Hindu voters. The party believes that it will retain its Muslim and Sikh vote bank.
Class difference is also a big issue
AAP has announced several schemes for auto rickshaw drivers, free health services for senior citizens and free water and electricity schemes. At the same time, BJP has announced the scheme of subsidized canteen for the poor, in which thali will be provided for Rs 5 and LPG cylinder will be provided for Rs 500.
In fact, the poor constitute 35 percent of Delhi’s population, the middle class 45 percent and the upper class about 20 percent. Delhi’s per capita income is the highest in India, which is twice the national average. In 2020, about 61 per cent of the poor supported AAP, while 33 per cent supported BJP, giving AAP a lead of 28 per cent.
Similarly, 53 per cent of the middle class supported AAP and only 39 per cent supported BJP, giving AAP a lead of 14 per cent. And 48 percent of the rich supported BJP, while 47 percent supported AAP, giving BJP a lead of only 1 percent. This means that the poor gave 9 per cent lead to AAP, the middle class gave 6 per cent lead and the rich gave 1 per cent lead to BJP, giving AAP a 15 per cent lead in the total vote share.
What should BJP do?
BJP will have to target AAP’s women vote, which gives it a 12 percent lead. The BJP is promising Rs 2,500 per month in cash to women voters and is banking on its track record with similar schemes in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh.
BJP hopes that Congress will make a dent in AAP’s Muslim and Sikh votes, thereby neutralizing its leads of 10 and 2 percent. Congress has fielded 8 Muslim candidates against AAP in 10 Muslim-influenced seats.
The BJP has a lead of more than 10 per cent among the upper class and upper OBCs (who constitute about 50 per cent of Delhi’s population). However, it lags behind by more than 30 per cent among Dalits, lower OBCs and minorities, giving AAP a lead of 15 per cent in the overall vote share.
Know the status of last election
In 2020, AAP won 62 seats (5 less than 2015) and BJP won 8 seats (5 more). In the 2024 general elections, BJP led in 52 assembly constituencies, AAP led in 10 and Congress in 8.
Also read: Delhi Elections: Dry day will remain for four days, liquor shops will remain closed
If this happens then who will benefit and how much?
Situation 1: If BJP gains 3 percent votes out of 70 seats and AAP loses 3 percent votes, BJP’s vote share will be 42 percent and AAP’s 51 percent. In this situation, BJP may get 19 seats and AAP may get 51 seats.
Situation 2: If BJP gets 6 percent votes from AAP, BJP’s vote share will be 45 percent and AAP’s will be 48 percent. In this situation, BJP may win the state, and get 36 seats, while AAP will get 34 seats.
Situation 3: If BJP gets 10 percent votes from AAP, BJP’s vote share will be 49 percent and AAP’s 44 percent. In this situation, BJP can sweep the state, it can get 48 seats and AAP will get 22 seats.