US President Donald Trump took the most risky steps of his term so far and attacked Iran’s Natanj, Fordo and Uranium enrichment sites in Isfahan. Trump said the entire payload of bombs was dropped on Fordo. Six B-2/A Spirit Stealth Bombers of the US Army bombed the Fordo nuclear site, which means a total of 12 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOP) were dropped at this underground atomic installation. These GBU-57 bombs are also known as Bunker Busters.
Each B-2 bomb consists of two Massive Ordnance Penetrators. It is the only weapon that can penetrate the Fordo uranium enrichment place built about 90 meters below the ground. A MOP is 14 tonnes and has more than 2 tons of explosives. The US also fired 30 Tomahawk Land Attack Cruise Missiles (TLACMS) from its submarines in the Arabian Sea at Iran’s Isfahan and Natanj nuclear bases. The Marak capacity of the Tomahawk missile is up to 1500 km and is capable of carrying 450 kg of explosives with it. Natanj and Isfahan Nuclear Sites are not located very deeply and hence the US targeted them with traditional weapons.
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Iran’s nuclear program shocks
B-2 aircraft covered a very long distance to target the Iranian bases. These aircraft flew continuously for more than 40 hours from the United States and performed air-to-air refueling. It is not clear that the mission was performed by the six B-2 bombers aircraft that passed over the Pacific Ocean by flying from the US and which was tracked by commercial flight trackers, or these were other B-2 aircraft, which probably flew into the dark and came by the Atlantic route. It is the biggest air attack on any country after the Massive Ordinance Air Blast (Moab or Mother of All Bomb) attack on ISIS terrorists in Afghanistan in 2017.
No clear information has been revealed about how much damage has been caused to Iran’s nuclear bases in these attacks. It is too early to assess the impact of these attacks- but the dropping of such explosives at nuclear installations would mean that Iran’s nuclear enrichment program will go behind for a few years. Iran will probably use HEU (highly enriched uranium) to make radiologically displayed devices or ‘dirty bombs’. After these attacks, it will no longer have the ability to produce enriched uranium required to make nuclear weapons. This option is now closed.
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Israel got America support
The biggest winner in this current struggle is Israel. After the massacre of Israeli citizens by Hamas on October 7, 2023, Israel launched a war in which Hamas, Hizbullah and Huti were targeted. All three are Iran -backed armed militia organizations. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in its assessment that Iran is promoting uranium required to make nuclear weapons. After this, on June 13, Israel started air strikes directly on Iran. Several Iranian nuclear scientists and military commanders were killed in Israeli aerial attacks, but these attacks could not derail the Iran’s nuclear weapon program. For this, Israel needed America’s intervention, which she did on 22 June.
Will Iran retaliate now?
This is now the biggest question whether Iran will retaliate? The joint attacks of the US-Israel have raised a challenge for Iran’s Islamic rule that it had never faced in 45 years-neither in a bloody war that lasted eight years with Iraq which ended in 1988 nor during the 2021-22 anti-government protests. Israel and American warfare aircraft have attacked goals on their own free will. The US has attacked Iran’s nuclear installations. Iran says that it will retaliate, but the place for such attacks is very limited. He may feat some ballistic missiles at eight permanent American military bases around West Asia and its surroundings.
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If Iran attacks American military bases, the US Carrier Strike Group and fighter jets will start immediate counter attacks. Iran can attempts anti-Ship ballistic missiles in an attempt to close the hormuz straight, through which one-fourth of the world’s oil and 20% of the world’s LNG passes. But this step will also invite America’s retaliation. Iran began building the Fordo Uranium Enforcement site around 2006, which took place a few years after the US attacked Iraq and removing Saddam Hussain from power.
After the 9/11 terror attack, the US uprooted Saddam Hussain from the Taliban rule in Afghanistan and the power of Iraq, Iran felt that now it was his next turn. The speculation of America’s attack on Iran ended rapidly when the US got busy in war on a double front in Iraq and Afghanistan. When the US and Israel are targeting Iran in 2025, then the options in front of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will be very less. Iran can carry out symbolic attacks on the US and Israel, can return on peace talks and focus on reconstruction of its scattered military capabilities.