On August 15, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has expressed concern over the intruders engaged in changing the country’s demography from the ramparts of the Red Fort and expressed that in future the government will take some tough steps for this. PM Modi said in clear words, ‘I want to warn about a concern and challenge today. The country’s demography is being replaced under a well-planned conspiracy, seeds of a new crisis are being sown. These intruders are snatching the livelihood of the youth of my country. These intruders are targeting my country’s sisters and daughters, it will not be tolerated. Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that today I want to tell the ramparts of the Red Fort that we have decided to start a ‘High Power Demography Mission’. Through this mission, the horrific crisis will be seen in the scheduled time to settle it.
It is obvious that the central government is preparing to do something big in this regard. Opposition smells politics in every work of Modi. And this issue has already been raising this issue in the elections of Bihar, Bengal and Jharkhand. However, there is another thing that BJP has not yet got the benefit of this issue in both states in the assembly elections of Bengal and Jharkhand. Bihar assembly elections are in front. The question arises whether the BJP will be able to polarize the votes on a large scale in Bihar on the basis of this statement of PM?
How much will the politics of Demogrepi Change in Bihar go?
In Bihar, Kishanganj, Araria, Katihar and Purnia in Bihar, bordering Bangladesh and Nepal, are called as Seemanchal. Demography has completely changed due to illegal intruders in Seemanchal. From 1951 to 2011, while the share of Muslims in the total population of the country has increased four percent, while in Seemanchal, this figure is about 16 percent. Kishanganj is a district of Bihar where Hindus have become minorities.
According to the 2011 census, the population of Muslims in Kishanganj was 67.58 percent and Hindus are only 31.43 percent. Similarly, 44.47 percent in Katihar, 42.95 in Araria and 38.46 percent in Purnia. In dozens of villages of many districts, Hindus have migrated as a minority. Several media reports have told that dozens of people migrated from Rampur village of Raniganj block of Araria district to Dogachhi village, where the population of Hindus is relatively high. In many places, Muslims have bought their land.
How important the issue of infiltration is for the central government, it can be understood that the Lok Sabha elections in Bihar were not conducted in the capital Patna and in Seemanchal. The issue has also been raised prominently in a meeting with the central government of the North Eastern states since the arrival of the Modi government.
Between 2001 and 2011, if you look at the decaded population growth rate, then it is 28.66 in Purnia, 30 in Katihar, 30 in Araria and 30.44 percent in Kishanganj. Those who deny infiltration argue that due to the Muslim -dominated area, the population growth rate in Seemanchal is high. But the growth rate of Muslims in other parts of the country is not so much. It is clear that the intruders from outside in these districts have taken refuge.
This is the reason that BJP has linked Demogrefe Change to national security and Hindu identity. Even PM Modi said that the intruders coming from outside are eating jobs and employment of our soldiers. The BJP is also calling it a threat to the security of the country. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, NDA (BJP, JD (U), LJP) won 30 seats in Bihar, which had 12 seats of BJP. This success shows that the people of Bihar understand this issue.
What will be the issue in Bengal elections
The 2026 assembly elections are coming closer in West Bengal and the issue of Demogreepy Change can once again become the center of political discourse. There has been a sensitive issue in West Bengal, especially in border districts such as Malda, Murshidabad, and North Dinajpur. In 2025, the minority population in the state has reached around 33%, while in 1951 it was 19.85%. In contrast, the Hindu population has come down from 78.45% to around 65%. BJP has been connecting it with illegal Bangladeshi stay.
At the same time, Mamta Banerjee has made it difficult for the BJP by linking the issue of Demography with Bengali identity.
He accused the BJP of weakening manipulation and Bengali identity in the voter list. TMC has also taken the issue of removing Bangladeshis from Delhi NCR very seriously. Therefore, to say that the issue of Demogrefi Change can be effective in 2026, it is more expected to expect more than necessary. This issue is more relevant in the border districts, where Muslim population is continuously increasing. Issues such as employment, corruption and infrastructure in urban and middle class areas can be more important than the issue of Demography Change.
Due to religious polarization in Bengal, BJP always suffers loss. Because TMC gets full support of minority votes. The first Muslim vote has been divided into leftist parties and Congress in the state. But now TMC is getting outright. Whereas BJP does not benefit from Hindu votes at all.
Why did this issue not work in Jharkhand
The issue of Damogreepy Change has been badly flopped in Jharkhand Assembly Elections 2024. Demographic changes in Bangladeshi infiltration and Santhal Pargana, especially, did not prove to be expected for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). BJP raised the issue vigorously in the election campaign, but despite this, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-Congress alliance won 56 seats and won a strong majority. While the BJP alliance had to be satisfied in only 24 seats.
In fact, the politics of tribal and indigenous identity in Jharkhand overshadowed the issue of Demogreepy Change. Hemant Soren and his wife Kalpana Soren firmly raised the tribal-original identity. Hemant introduced himself as the earth and gave the message that the victory of the BJP would remove the rule of the state from the hands of the tribals. This is the reason that JMM won most of the 28 tribal reserved seats.
After Hemant Soren’s jail and bail, he also redeemed it as sympathy. This is the reason that issues like Demogrefe Change became light. Because voters preferred local leadership and emotional appeal. BJP launched external leaders, such as Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, to campaign, but local leaders such as Babulal Marandi, Arjun Munda, or Raghuvar Das were not effectively taken forward. One reason was that the tribals looked at the important issue like Demogreepy Change with suspicion. In contrast, JMM raised a better synergy with the voters by raising local issues, such as 1932 Khatian and Sarna Dharma Code. Along with this, the issue of Demogrefe Change gave JMM a chance to unite tribal and Muslim votes against BJP.
How much work will this issue do at the national level
At the national level, the issue of Demogrefe Change can prove to be an important weapon for the BJP. Before the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, it is expected that the new census report of the country will also come. It is expected that in this report, the number of minority dominated districts will increase rapidly. The BJP will promote it by linking it to national security, cultural identity, and Hindu identity. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the issue worked to unite Hindu voters to some extent in border states like Assam and West Bengal. In these states, BJP was successful in winning 9 and 12 seats respectively.
But the way the PM has said to run a demogrey mission from the ramparts of the Red Fort, it is evident that the issue will be hot. Like the NRC and Waqf Board Amendment Bill, a debate on this issue can begin across India. If there is some rigorous action under the Demogreepy Mission, then the entire opposition will be seen standing with the minority community and the BJP will be close to the success in its cause.
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