US President Donald Trump has added another ‘potential’ ceasefire in his name. Trump claimed on social media that both Israel and Iran came in contact with them so that they could get a peace agreement between the two countries.
Meanwhile, Israel has suffered serious military injuries to Iran, while Iranian army missiles were also successful in entering the Israeli’s famous ‘Iron Dome’ security shield. After the announcement of Trump’s ceasefire, Iran’s attack ‘Four Israeli citizens died‘ Hui.
The cease fire began when the US launched an air strike on Iran’s nuclear program, in response to which Iran fired missiles on the American military base ‘Al Udid Airbase’ in Qatar. This is America’s largest base in the Middle East.
Iran had already made it clear that if its nuclear program was attacked, it would target the US region targets and fulfilled this promise. This step was necessary to maintain confidence in the Iranian people and the army as Iran suffered a lot in the last few days. The casualty number of common people in Iran has not been cleared yet.
What is the success of the ceasefire depends on?
The long life of this ceasefire will depend on how the internal politics of Israel and Iran takes direction. The US will not intervene now until its military bases are attacked again. Yes, the matter is a bit complicated for Israel. His ‘invincible’ army has a slightly damaged image, although it must have been part of Israel’s strategy. No missile defense system in the world is completely invincible. Nevertheless, Israel may assume that the ceasefire is hindering his plan because he wanted to completely eliminate Iran’s military strength and may not get this opportunity again.
Status of Iran: hollow strength and internal threats
The situation in Iran is very unstable at this time. With the help of Qatar, the cease fire was a relieved break for him. In the last week, his defense system has been badly disintegrated and there has been a big loss on military and intelligence command. Iran within the country ‘More than 500 people arrested’ Have been accused of helping Israeli intelligence agencies.
Iran is currently in a very unsafe situation. He is not able to give proper response to the Israeli attacks and the possibility of war is increasing. That too when his associate groups such as ‘Hezbullah, Hamas and Huti’ are either incapable of fighting or not interested in fighting.
… and Trump? ‘Joker’ between everyone
Trump is a strange but important character in this whole story. The US unusually contacted Iran directly and mediated for cease fire. It is possible that Iran’s condition is that it will reversed first, only then peace will be considered.
It is also possible that Qatar was selected for mediation because she is the most trusted ally in America today. Al Udid airbase is also there. Some reports suggest that the US had already removed its major military property from there before the ceasefire, causing the base to become almost empty.
In the video seen on social media, Iran’s missiles appeared at a height in the sky over Qatar’s capital Doha, which gave Qatari interceptors a chance to stop them. This was a strange ‘drama’ situation in which both countries were shown the path of ‘respectable return’ and both chose that option.
Operation ‘Rising Lion’ and Israel’s priorities
Israel named this entire operation as ‘Rising Lion’ and claimed that it had abolished Iran’s atomic and missile strength which was the priority of Prime Minister Netanyahu. The missile bases were destroyed by Israel on its own but needed American weapons to attack nuclear sites. Especially the success of B-2 bomber attacks will be known only after weeks and it is not sure that Iran’s nuclear program has been completely destroyed. This means that the main dispute between Israel and Iran is a race for nuclear weapons, it is still unsolved.
Temporary peace: necessary but stagger
Currently, this ceasefire is useful for all sides. Israel was relieved because he too was now in casualties and a small country, no matter how powerful, could not bear the economic price of long war, but this peace is delicate like glass. Its existence rests on how much restraint Iran and Israel show.
(About the author: Kabir is the head of West Asia Initiative at the Tanja Observer Research Foundation. He is the author of the book ‘The Isis Peril’. These articles are his personal views.)