Rahul Gandhi traveled from Kanyakumari to Kashmir from September 2022 to January 2023.
Rahul Gandhi’s biggest journey in Bihar will start from 17 August. The Congress leader’s vote rights yatra will pass through 23 districts on the allegations of voter verification and vote theft in elections, which will cover 50 assembly seats.
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Before the assembly elections, we will try to create an atmosphere in favor of the Grand Alliance by roaming from Shahabad to Magadh, Ang, Kosi, Seemanchal, Mithila, Tirhut and Saran.
Out of the 50 assembly seats Rahul Gandhi will roam, 23 seats were won by the Grand Alliance in the 2020 assembly elections. Talking about the Congress, he fought 20 out of 50 seats, out of which 8 seats were won.
At the same time, before the Lok Sabha elections, in January 2024, Rahul Gandhi took a 5 -day India -joint justice journey in Bihar. In the Lok Sabha elections held, 5 seats went to the account of Sasaram, Aurangabad, Purnia, Katihar and Kishanganj Grand Alliance. There are 30 assembly seats here, where the Congress can focus more.
Learn, in which areas will Rahul Gandhi roam before the assembly elections? What is the political situation of Congress there? What does Rahul want to achieve from the journey?
Rahul Gandhi will further strengthen his land in Shahabad
Shahabad consists of Bhojpur, Buxar, Rohtas and Kaimur districts. Two of these districts will go to Rahul Gandhi in 4 assembly constituencies of Rohtas and Bhojpur (Ara).
Yadav, Kushwaha, Rajput, Dalits and the backward class (EBC) affect Shahabad politics.
Congress status in Shahabad: The hold of RJD, Congress and CPI Male in this area is strong. However, repeated changes of alliances greatly affect the electoral results.
In 2015, JDU-RJD-Congress Grand Alliance captured 16 out of 22 seats. NDA got only 5 seats. At the same time, the Grand Alliance (RJD, Congress, CPI Male) won 19 out of 22 assembly seats in 2020.
In 2020, the Congress contested 5 out of 22 seats, out of which 4 seats were won. Bail was forfeited on one seat Chanpur.
What would Rahul like to practice: Both forward and backward have been vocal in Shahabad. Ethnic mobilization occurs rapidly here. Male has influence on the Dalits of this area.
Looking at Rahul Gandhi’s recent speeches in Bihar, he has been advocating the rights of Dalits and OBC-BC. He will try to unite and mobilize his vote bank before the election.
Senior Journalist Arun Pandey says, “This area was once a stronghold of NDA, but the social equation that has been formed by Male, RJD and Congress united, now the grand alliance has become heavy.”
‘Rahul wants to further strengthen his core area by starting the journey from this area. PM Modi is also constantly rally in these areas. They have held two rally in this area. Now the third rally is also proposed in his Gaya.
Rahul’s eye on Nitish’s vote bank in Magadha
Magadha includes Patna, Jehanabad, Gaya, Aurangabad, Arwal, Nawada, Sheikhpura and Nalanda districts. Out of this, Rahul Gandhi will roam in 11 assembly seats in 5 districts.
Yadav, Kurmi, Koiri, Dalit (Manjhi, Ravidas, Paswan community), Mallah and Savarna are important factor here. The Muslim community is also important in Gaya and Jehanabad.
Congress status in Magadh: The influence of Yadav and Dalits has increased rapidly here. They are considered to be the core voters of RJD and CPI-Male. At the same time, Kurmi and the Backward Community (EBC) are the base vote bank of Nitish Kumar.
In the 2020 assembly elections, the grand alliance won 32 out of 49 seats. The NDA had to suffer heavy losses. The Congress contested 7 assembly seats in this area, out of which it won only two seats.
What will Rahul do: Magadha region has forward-back politics. Backward votes have been more with the grand alliance. Nitish Kumar has penetration between Koiri-Kurmi and EBC voters of this area.
However, in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Grand Alliance broke the equation by giving Kushwaha candidate. He won three Lok Sabha seats.
At present, there is no powerful leader in the Magadha region inside JDU after Nitish Kumar, who can keep his strength equation. This is the reason that after Nitish Kumar, all parties are working continuously to become a big leader of EBC voters. Rahul Gandhi is also eyeing Nitish Kumar’s EBC vote bank.
Efforts to break into NDA stronghold in limb
The limbs include Bhagalpur, Banka, Khagaria, Munger, Jamui and Lakhisarai districts. Out of this, 3 districts will go to Rahul Gandhi in 6 assembly constituencies of Bhagalpur, Munger and Lakhisarai.
Yadav, Kurmi, Koiri, and Dhanuk are impressive here. At the same time, Bhumihar and Rajputs in Bhagalpur and Munger districts are socio-economicly influential. Muslim voters in Khagaria and Bhagalpur also affect the results.
Congress status in Anga Pradesh: The increasing awareness of Yadav-Muslim-Dalit (My Equation) and EBC communities has greatly influenced politics.
After the Bhagalpur riots, Lalu Yadav strengthened his land, but in recent years the inclination of Dhanuk voters towards Nitish Kumar has demolished all his equations.
In the 2020 assembly elections, the grand alliance was reduced to just 7 seats in 25 assembly seats in this area. The Congress fought in 9 seats in this area, out of which only 3 seats won.
What will Rahul do: In this area, the organization of Dhanuk Samaj and their demands (eg reservation and social recognition) is raising the head from renewed. Rahul Gandhi is also presenting himself as an advocate to give himself rights to the underprivileged. After the Bhagalpur riots, the Congress was eliminated from this area. Efforts are being made to make him stand afresh.
Senior Journalist Shivlochan says, Anga is the area from where the Chief Minister of Congress used to contest elections. Bhagwat Jha Azad also became the Chief Minister of Bihar only after winning the election from Bhagalpur. Then the Speaker of Bihar Legislative Assembly was also from Bhagalpur. This Congress stronghold collapsed after the Bhagalpur riots in 89.
Trying to reduce Owaisi’s loss in Seemanchal
Seemanchal is the largest Muslim population area in Bihar. Kishanganj is 67.98 per cent, Araria 42.94 per cent, Katihar 44.46 per cent and Purnia 38.46 per cent.
There are 24 assembly seats in 4 districts, out of which 12 seats are Muslim -majority. Rahul Gandhi will roam in 9 assembly constituencies of the remaining 3 districts except Kishanganj.
Congress status in Seemanchal: Apart from the Muslim community, Yadav, Dalit, EBC (Nishad, Mallah), and Savarna (Bhumihar, Rajput) are also important.
Last time Asaduddin Owaisi’s party AIMIM entered and won 5 seats. The grand alliance had to bear the brunt of this and was reduced to 8 seats. NDA won 11 seats.
In the 2020 assembly elections, the Congress won 5 seats in this area.
What will Rahul do: The Grand Alliance is trying to unite Muslim and OBC votes by raising issues like social justice, unemployment, and Waqf amendment bills.
Rahul Gandhi’s best effort is to unite his old voters and reduce Owaisi’s loss.
Trying to prepare land in Kosi
The politics of Kosi region (Saharsa, Supaul, and Madhepura districts) is affected by ethnic equations, coalition strategies and regional issues such as floods and economic backwardness.
Rahul Gandhi will roam one day in Supaul. Yadav is the most influential in the Kosi region, especially in Madhepura. Mallah is situated on the banks of the Kosi river. Everyone keeps an eye on their votes.
Congress status in Kosi The Yadav-Muslim (My) equation is the strength of the Grand Alliance, while the EBC and Mahadalit votes are divided between the Grand Alliance and the NDA. Dhanuk is also an important factor.
In the 2020 assembly elections, the Grand Alliance won 3 seats out of 13 seats in Kosi. The Muslim population in Saharsa and Supaul is around 15 per cent, in a decisive role in many seats. Congress could not open an account.
What will Rahul do: The Grand Alliance in this area has a strong alliance of Yadav-Muslim. In a way, this is also his weakness. When these voters are aggressive, the rest of the voters become mobilized and the NDA wins.
From his visit, Rahul Gandhi would like to bring some parts of the EBC vote bank to his court, so that old land can be achieved. Bhumihar and Rajputs are traditional BJP voters, but their population is limited.
Trying to break into NDA stronghold Mithilanchal
Mithilanchal is considered a stronghold of NDA, especially BJP. Mithilanchal has 46 assembly seats in 6 districts Sitamarhi, Shivhar, Darbhanga, Madhubani, Samastipur and Begusarai. NDA won 31 out of 46 seats in the 2020 election. BJP won 19 seats and JDU won 12 seats. Only 15 candidates of the Grand Alliance won.
Congress status: Rahul Gandhi will roam 3 districts of Mithilanchal, Madhubani, Darbhanga and 7 assembly seats in Sitamarhi. Out of these 7 seats, the Congress contested 2 seats last time, but could not open the account.
What will Rahul do: NDA is making its core voters with the help of the mandal (religion) by building the temple of Mata Janaki in Sitamarhi. In such a situation, Rahul Gandhi will try to create an atmosphere in favor of the grand alliance.
On Monday, 300 MPs of the opposition took out a march from Parliament to the Election Commission office on the allegation of voter verification and votes theft in the election. During this time TMC MP Mithali Bagh fainted.
Tirhut- Preparation to challenge NDA
Politically in Tirhut area, if 3 districts of Saran division mixed Chhapra, Siwan and Gopalganj, then 7 districts come. Muzaffarpur, Vaishali, Chapra, Siwan, Gopalganj, Bettiah and Motihari. Out of this, Rahul Gandhi will roam in the remaining 6 districts except Vaishali.
Here the effect of upper caste and OBC-BC looks more or less equal. Muzaffarpur and Vaishali districts have influence of Brahmins, Bhumihar, and Rajputs as well as Yadavs.
Congress status: Along with the upper castes, the EBC community like Nishad, Mallah, Kewat, and Teli are important factor in this area. In 2020, the grand alliance was able to win 24 seats in 64 assembly seats in this area. Out of this, 15 seats were won from Saran division.
As far as the performance of the Congress was talked about, she won 3 seats. Rahul Gandhi will cover 12 assembly constituencies of 6 districts.
What will Rahul do: The number of EBC voters in the area of Champaran is fine. This area has been greatly affected during the Lalu-Rubri rule. Since then a large number of EBC has been voting for BJP-JDU. To prevent this, the Grand Alliance is preparing the EBC leader as Mukesh Sahni.
Whereas, the Congress is constantly saying about giving preference to them from the organization to ticket distribution. Rahul Gandhi will try to awaken his trust in a large section.
Where India traveled, 5 seats won the grand alliance
Prior to the Lok Sabha elections, in January 2024, Rahul Gandhi also traveled to India for 5 days in Bihar. He benefited from this in elections.
Rahul Gandhi passed through Kishanganj, Araria, Purnia, Katihar, Aurangabad, Sasaram, Kaimur during the Bharat Jigo Yatra. Out of this, 6 Lok Sabha seats come, out of which the grand alliance was won in 5 seats.