The latest news from Bengal is that the situation is tense but under control. The condition of some parts of the state is in the military tongue, SNAFU is a mess. Bengal and Bangladesh are not only the same name, but now the soul of Bangladesh has slowly entered the open border. This is not just about increasing Muslim population, but it is a matter of foreign element which is involved in this increase and which is strangling the ‘chicken neck’.
The border of West Bengal has been such a door for years which is never closed. The stories of the visitors, the quarrel of identity and the long story of change in population have gone through this. Bengal was first divided for administration and for the second time, in the name of religion, Pakistan became Pakistan and India formed for Muslims and whoever wants to live here, India for them.
We often listen to the bloodshed in Western Pakistan. But what happened on the eastern border is less talked about. She was not a direct exchange. Everything was confused here. Bengali Hindus and Muslims remain on the side. When the persecution on Hindus increased in East Pakistan or when the army of Pakistan suppressed there, India became a natural refuge for the citizens there. During the Bangladesh liberation struggle, more than one crore refugees (most of them were Hindus) came to India. Out of which about 65 lakhs remained here. Many Muslims also came at that time, but they went back after becoming Bangladesh. Hindus did not return mostly.
Bangladesh promised secularism, but gradually Islamic thinking dominated there. Hindus were made second-class citizens. After 1980, the grip of Islamic organizations became stronger. It also had Saudi money -powered madrasas and Iran’s 1979 revolution. Radical Islam was encouraged. Minorities were shocked. And, the migration of Hindus began to India from afresh. This border of 4,096 km is not less than a sieve. Its ways came not only refugees, but also people who came for many economic reasons, who were mostly Muslims. These people lived from Assam to Kolkata.
In 1951, the Muslim population in West Bengal was 20%. It reached 27% in 2011. After this there was no census, but it is said that today this figure can be above 30%. Apart from this, according to the UN, more than 10 lakh Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh are also in India. Now these people have got very comfortably in Indian cities. They have an Aadhaar card, voter ID, that is, these people have become ‘de Facto’ citizens.
Let us now focus on three districts, where the demographic story is getting deeper:
Murshidabad: In 1951, Muslims were 55%, Hindu 45%. By 2011, Muslims increased to 66%, Hindus decreased to 33%. This increase occurred gradually, due to migration and more children (according to NFHS-5, Muslim TFR (TOTAL FERTILITY RATE) is 2.4, while Hindu’s only 1.6).
Malda: In 1951, Muslim population was 37% and Hindu 62%. In 2011, Muslims were 51.27% and Hindu 48%. Meaning, the picture was almost overturned. Its credit goes to both infiltration and natural growth from across the border.
North Dinajpur: Here in 1951, Muslims were 39% and Hindu 60%. In 2011, the Muslim population reached 49.92% and Hindus were also on par with about 49% i.e. the case is a neck-to-neck… and now the ‘chicken neck’ is slowly shivering.
These figures are not just census numbers. This is a complete geo-politics puzzle. The thin route connecting the Northeast of India – Siliguri Corridor, ie the same ‘Chicken Nek’ – North passes through Dinajpur. In such a situation, the changing demography of this district has become a big strategic headache.
With the increase in Islamism in Bangladesh, anti-Hindu thinking and policies started dominating there. After 1990, this effect also began to feel across the border. Radical networks reports started coming in Malda and Murshidabad. Across this border, there was also a large base of smuggling of explosives and fake notes- which made these things like ‘neighboring love’. A large population here, which cannot be called a thug, is definitely there, which does not show any special attachment, familiarity or loyalty from this land.
Now see the picture of the three districts below the ‘Chicken Neck’:
Answer 24 Parganas: Here in 1951, Muslim population was 19% and Hindu 80%. But by 2011, Muslims were 25.82% and Hindus were 73.46%. In 2001, Muslims were 24.22%, that is, an increase of about 1.6% in 10 years. This is not a common district – a large district with a population of 1 crore. On one side there is an urban area near Kolkata, on the other side there are villages adjacent to the border where there is a complete scope of infiltration. Here the entire racket of smuggling and fake ID card is flourishing.
South 24 Parganas: Here in 1951, the Muslim population was about 20%. By 2011, it increased to 35.57%- that is, a jump of about 15%.
Birbhum: In 1951, Muslims were 22% and Hindu 77%. In 2011, Muslims increased to 37.06% and Hindus decreased to 62.29%. In 2001, Muslims were 35.08%, ie 2% gained in 10 years. According to NFHS-5, Muslim TFR is 2.3, while Hindu’s only 1.6. Now just think – Since 1951, a bounce of 15% is happening in any border. If it is not infiltrated, then what is it?
There has been no tremendous industrial growth in all these districts, nor any development that increases the population of the same community at this speed and the share of the other will continue to decrease. No one is saying that this is a big conspiracy, but it is so much that it is not normal. And so fast changing demography, that too in a sensitive area like India’s eastern border cannot be durable for a long time.
When India and the world have anti-Muslim centuries, it is not easy to separate a community and see the pattern at such a time. It seems a bit uncomfortable, but the truth is often like this. The truth is that Bangladesh, which was once a progressive and model Islamic society, has now become a staunch Islamic country. The truth is also that the rapid increase in the Muslim population in Bengal is not only because of more children, but also due to infiltration. Hindutva people have been raising their voice for a long time over the increase in Muslim population, but the case of Bengal is different – because both location and situation are special here. The statements made by Bangladesh Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus about the Northeast have spoiled the atmosphere. Leave a foreign conspiracy, today there is a stir going on inside the country, which if increased, then the ‘Seven Sisters’ of Northeast may come in a position to cut off from Mainland India.
The BJP has been playing alarm since the 1980s. Promising that ‘intruders’ will be taken out of the country. But the truth is that this work is like making the omelette egg again. Migration has now become a part of demographic fabric. Now if there is an attempt to who is Indian and who is Bangladeshi, then the matter immediately goes towards communal tension – especially when the relationship between BJP and Muslims is already cold. This issue neither fits the election maths of Trinamool, and the Congress and the left are so weak that they do not even have any special difference. India’s secular politics has become such a ‘Taterop Walk’, where the screams of allegations and counter-allegations start as soon as questions like border security or loyalty, and the real thing is suppressed somewhere.
Here, some districts which are very sensitive and also very important strategically, a different atmosphere is being created there. The paper may not be seen on paper, but a situation like a ‘new partition’ is seen on the ground. If there is a statement of a leader, an incident in Palestine, a law in India, a book published in London, a cartoon made in Denmark or a seminar in Paris – whatever, all of this is enough to give a spark to a pile of gunpowder here. In such a situation, radical groups surround the situation in such a way that the machinery of the state seems to be begging, and in this entire process the same groups become more powerful. The increasing distance between Hindu-Muslim across the country is also putting more flour in this ‘mill’.
West Bengal is currently stuck in a ‘Demographic Dance’ – the effect of a little history, a little geography, and a little politics. There is still a rift in the border, the figures are still changing, and the Siliguri Corridor is sitting with breath. The story of luck is now being written slowly with every migrant… and what will be the front page – no one knows it.
(Kamlesh Singh, Colmnist and Satire is a writer. He has been a former news director of India Today Digital. The idea expressed in this article is personal to the author.)