The battle between Israel and Iran up to 12 is now over. But Iran has suffered a lot in this fight. Its three major atomic hideouts have been destroyed, as well as many top military commanders and nuclear scientists have been killed in the Israeli attack. The most serious concern is that the Israeli hit list also included Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose murder plan was canceled after America’s intervention. In such a situation, now the path ahead is very difficult for the Khamenei regime in Iran.
Deep dissatisfaction among the public
The Israeli attack and then America’s entry has defeated Iran in this battle. Around one thousand people lost their lives and hundreds of people were injured. Also, from residential buildings to important infrastructure, there has been a huge loss due to bombing. In such a situation, there has been an untouchability among the people of the people there. There is already anger among the people, especially youth and women against the Khamenei regime in Iran. Demonstrations started after the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022 brought the rigorous policies and human rights violations of the regime to the world. In such a situation, the spark of the movement after the war can again flare up and the public can also call for the coup.
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Khamenei is now 86 years old and in such a situation, the picture about his successor is not yet clear. In such a situation, the uncertain future is also questioning the stability of governance. In some reports, it has been claimed that efforts are going on to remove Khamenei from power. Iran’s prominent businessmen, military officers and some clerical coup may conspiracy. Iran’s liberal groups believe that Iran is caught in war and economic crisis due to the policies of Khamenei.
The voice of opposition forces raised
There is no organized opposition force in Iran that can directly challenge the Khamenei regime. Opposition groups, such as Mujahideen-e-Khalak, have become weak and the exile leader like Reza Pahlavi lacks public support. But after the recent war, Iran’s exiled Crown Prince Reza Shah Pahalvi has blamed the ambition of nuclear weapons for the war. He has demanded the resignation of Supreme Leader Khamenei and said that with the end of this rule, peace can come in Iran.
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Pahlavi has said that the desire for nuclear weapons is the biggest reason for unrest in Iran, which has put the interests of the public on hold. He said that Khamenei and his destroyer terrorist rule has failed Iran. In the midst of the war, Pahlavi appealed to Khamenei to resign from the post in the interest of the Iranian public, so that Iranian peace and prosperity can start. Following this appeal, Pahlavani is expected to get support from Iran’s civilian groups, which can clear the way to evict Khamenei from power.
West and external pressure
Strict economic sanctions of the US and Western countries have also hurt Iran’s economy deeply. Reduction in oil exports, inflation and unemployment have affected the standard of living of the public. In such a situation, the businessmen there fear that they will have to bear the most loss of war and they are now expecting a peace loving rule. Apart from this, the pressure of the West can also become a reason for the end of Khamenei regime in Iran.
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People close to the Khamenei regime in Iran and the revolutionary guards (IRGC) keep full control on economic resources, making the interests of the general public compromised. This dissatisfaction has emerged before the government, but it can be strengthened in the current situation. The conflict has put additional pressure on Iran’s economy, making the country’s military expenses increase and damage to the infrastructure has made it more complicated.
Iran was alone in war
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu openly said that the removal of Khamenei in Iran can end the regional war and he wants to change the nuclear program as well as change power in Iran. Although he did not get the support of America on the issue of change of power, but Trump is also keeping his crooked eye on the Khamenei regime, because it has become a challenge not only for Israel but for the entire region.
Iran -backed groups such as Hizbullah and Hamas have weakened in recent wars and this is directly impacting the government. The coup in Syria is also a lesson for Iran, as it was its main ally. Apart from this, no Muslim country has directly supported Iran in the current war, nor did any proxy standing against America or Israel, it shows that the roots of Iranian regime have now weakened.