When the Russian-Ukraine War began in 2022, India rescued thousands of Indians from Ukraine under Operation Ganga very fast, mostly students. But amidst the current tension in West Asia, Evaculation is not as easy as the same. There are many reasons such as geography, air restriction, diplomatic sensitivity and danger nature, which make it more complicated.
Actually, Iran has about 10,000 Indian citizens, out of which about 1,500 to 2,000 students and 6,000 people have been working there for a long time. Apart from these, Indian sailor and other people associated with the shipping sector are also present in Iran. At the same time, between Ukraine, about 22,500 Indians were successfully brought to India between February and March 2022.
The Government of India has not yet named any withdrawal campaign from Iran, as was given to ‘Operation Ganga’ during the evacuation from Ukraine. Indians were evacuated from a total of 90 flights under Operation Ganga, out of which 14 flights were operated by the Indian Air Force from neighboring countries. In Ukraine, India got easy support from countries like Hungary, Romania, Moldova, Slovakia and Poland, which made the campaign easier.
Indians withdrawn from Iran are not easy
Geographical and diplomatic obstacles are revealed in Iran’s case. Even though the numbers of return are less than in Ukraine, safe passages and options are limited. Both Iran’s eastern neighboring Pakistan and Afghanistan are diplomatic and strategically difficult for India. Pakistan has closed its air route for India and withdrawal from the ground route is also not possible.
Although there has been some improvement in Indo-Afghanistan relations, the logistics issue of withdrawal from there remains serious. The air route also cannot walk because the flights will have to pass through the airs area of ​​Pakistan, which is forbidden.
East and west difference
Ukraine’s western boundary was relatively safe in the early days of the Russia-Ukraine War. The center of the fight was Eastern areas like Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkives. Therefore, it was possible for thousands of people including Indians to leave Ukraine. But this is not the case in Iran. Israeli aerial attacks are spread in many areas and are not limited. Therefore, the clearance routes are surrounded by dangers.
Transport became a big challenge
Despite the war in Ukraine, rail and road connectivity remained to a large extent, causing people to reach ground border crossings like Laviv and Charity. Roads and rail connectivity in Iran are uncertain and unstable. Many roads pass through strategic or military areas, which are not safe for common citizens.
Advice to go out of Tehran
Let us know that the Indian Embassy has advised Indians living in Iran’s capital Tehran to go to safe places with their own resources. The drainage process has started. In the first batch, about 110 people have crossed the Iran-Armenia border, most of which are students. Apart from this, about 600-700 people have been sent from Tehran to the city of Kum (QOM) in the middle of Iran, which is a religious place.
However, it is not possible to go to cities like Arak, Khoramabad, Isfahan, Tabariz and Karmanshah as these cities are close to atoms and military facilities.
After all, why is Armenia?
The airspace of Iran is closed due to the current conflict, so the ground is the only option. This situation is like Ukraine, whose aircraft is still closed. During Operation Ganga, Indians were taken out of the ground routes of countries like Poland, Hungary, Moldova and Slovakia. Poland had the highest clearance because it has good relations with India. PM Modi also thanked Poland during his visit.
Iran’s ground border is from Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Both Afghanistan and Pakistan are the least preferred for clearance. Pakistan has closed the air route for Indian flights since Operation Sindoor. Azerbaijan supported Pakistan during the recent India-Pakistan dispute, so it could not become an option.
Turkmenistan is currently an option as the capital Ashgabat is close to the border of Iran. The next batch may be withdrawn by Turkmenistan route. Armenia has emerged as the most suitable option due to the increasing geostrategic compatibility between India and Armenia.