Will the Aam Aadmi Party return for the assembly elections in Delhi or BJP will get a chance? But today we will first decode Delhi’s voting pattern. Tonight till 8 pm, 70 assembly seats of Delhi have been polled 58 percent, which can reach 60 percent in the final figures. This figure is 0.7 percent less than the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The year 2020 assembly elections are 4 and a half percent less and 9 percent less than the 2015 elections.
Delhi is the most aware and most educated voter in the country and almost every person has a smartphone here, but despite this, out of 1 crore 56 lakh voters of Delhi, 65 lakh people did not vote. India calls itself the largest democracy in the world, but the truth is that 63 lakh people of Delhi in Lok Sabha elections and 65 lakh people in the assembly elections today did not cast their votes. These figures are more than the total population of the country like New Zealand.
The vote percentage was less than 60 percent
An average takes 5 minutes to vote for any person and they decide only 5 minutes who will stay in the government for the next 5 years. The people of Delhi not only voted less than the previous time, but this time this figure has still not touched 60 percent. The last time when the Aam Aadmi Party won 62 out of 70 seats, about 6 and a half percent polling was held and in 2015, when 67 out of 70 seats were won, more than 67 percent voting was held.
How much voting was done in which district?
There are a total of 11 districts in Delhi, out of which 64 percent polling has been held in North East Delhi. This is the same district of Delhi, where there were communal riots in the year 2020 and where Hindu voters are 68 percent and Muslim voters are 30 percent. The lowest 55 percent polling is held in New Delhi district, where Hindu voters are 88 percent and Muslim voters are only 6 percent. This shows that the seats in Delhi which have 20 % or more number of Muslim voters in Delhi have the highest turnout and where the number of Hindu voters is more, there has been less turnout.
Two percent voting increased on New Delhi seat
Among them, the New Delhi Assembly seat from which Arvind Kejriwal, BJP’s Pravesh Verma and Congress’s Sandeep Dixit are contesting, that seat has been voted 54 percent and it is 2 percent more than the last elections. Last time, 52 percent voting was done on this seat and this time 54 percent voting has been done. However, despite the low polling last time, Kejriwal won elections from this seat with 21 thousand votes.
The Kalkaji seat from which Chief Minister Atishi is contesting the election, that seat has been polled by 52 percent and it is 5 and a half percent less than last time. The biggest thing is that the seats where the number of Muslim voters is 20 percent or more, those seats have been voted more than the entire Delhi. 70 seats of Delhi have been polling 58 percent while the 12 seats with the influence of Muslims have 63 percent polling and this is 5 % more than the total voting.
Most voting in Mustafabad seat
Of the 70 seats in Delhi, the number of Muslim voters is more than 40 %. In the Mustafabad assembly constituency where 41 percent Muslims and 56 percent Hindus live, the entire Delhi has the highest number of voting. This is the same seat where there were communal riots in Delhi in the year 2020 and this time the party of Asaduddin Owaisi has made Tahir Hussain, the main accused of these riots, its candidate.
After Mustafabad, Seelampur had the highest number of 6 and a half6 percent polling, where Hindus have been minorities. This seat has 57 percent of the population of Muslims and 40 percent of the population is of Hindus. The seat where the lowest turnout was the name of that seat, Karol Bagh. This seat has only 4 and a half percent polling and 91 percent of the population here is of Hindus and only 4.2 percent of the population is Muslims. With this voting pattern you will understand that where the population of Hindus is more, there is less turnout and where the population of Muslims is more, there has been tremendous voting.
What does voting pattern say?
Recently, in the elections of Haryana and Jharkhand, there was less or almost equal vote than last time, due to which there was no change of power there. Whereas Maharashtra had 5 and a half percent more polling and there was no change of power. Apart from this, when the last time power changed in Delhi, then there was 8 percent more voting in those elections. In the 2008 elections, 5 and a half percent polling was held and in the 2013 elections, 6 and a half percent polling was held.
These were the same elections when the Aam Aadmi Party defeated Sheila Dixit’s Congress government in Delhi after 15 years. Apart from this, when 2 percent more voting was held in the 2015 assembly elections, then the Aam Aadmi Party won 67 out of 70 seats, while in the year 2020, when 5 percent was less, the Aam Aadmi Party won 62 out of 70 seats. Was This shows that the correct estimate of the results on the basis of less and more voting in Delhi will probably be wrong.