With the announcement of Delhi Assembly elections by the Election Commission on Tuesday, voting will be held on 5th February and results will be declared on 8th February. It would almost be right to say that this is another high-stakes political fight between the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress. However, what stands out prominently is that in these elections the stake is highest for Aam Aadmi Party, slightly less for BJP and least for Congress. This means that the Congress party will remain just a vote-catcher. This means that at some places it will be seen cutting the votes of BJP and at other places it will be seen cutting the votes of Aam Aadmi Party. Who will ultimately suffer the loss? Are the arguments on the basis of which Aam Aadmi Party had refused to contest elections with Congress, being proved correct?
1-How strong is Congress in Delhi elections?
Congress ruled Delhi for 15 years from 1998 to 2013. Even in the 2013 elections, it was the third largest force (eight seats) and due to the hung assembly, the Aam Aadmi Party (28 seats) had to join hands with it and form the government. But since then Congress could not make even a single MLA in Delhi. Congress’ vote percentage fell to 4.26%, which was less than 10% in 2015. But the surprising thing is that any person in Delhi, whether he drives a Mercedes or sells tea and cigarettes on a street corner, feels that the real Ganga of development in Delhi flowed only under Sheila Dikshit’s government.
Perhaps seeing Sheila’s popularity, Sandeep Dixit is leading the election campaign of Congress in Delhi. But the question also arises whether there can be some improvement in the performance of Congress by handing over the command to Sandeep Dixit. Actually, gaining popularity in politics and converting it into votes are two different things. Similarly, a brand is very popular but it does not have any outlets. Here a film is very good but it gets very few theaters. This is the problem with Congress in Delhi. Obviously, Congress is trying to make this election triangular but there seems to be very little chance of success.
Last November, Congress Party started Nyay Yatra on the lines of Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra, but due to lukewarm response on the ground, no special atmosphere was created.
2-Is Congress successful in distributing anti-incumbency votes?
Now the question arises whether how much hope is left for the Congress to be successful in dividing the anti-incumbency votes. When Arvind Kejriwal decided to contest the elections alone in Delhi, the biggest reason behind it was that he wanted Delhi People angry with Aam Aadmi Party should not have only BJP as an option. Kejriwal’s strategy was very right. Because if Congress remains an option for the people who are angry with the present government in Delhi, then the angry votes will get divided. Some people would vote for BJP and some for Congress. But this strategy does not seem to be successful because Congress could not succeed in making the conflict triangular in the Delhi Assembly elections. When the contest will be face to face between Aam Aadmi Party and BJP, it is obvious that there will be no division of voters angry with the government. This strategy of Kejriwal seems to be failing and BJP is benefiting in this way.
3-Can Congress get some Dalit and Muslim votes?
Political analysts believe that both AAP and Congress depend on the same vote bank of minorities and Dalits. Obviously, the increase in vote share of one party can happen at the expense of the other party. It is believed that even a small increase in the vote share of Congress can cause a big loss to the Aam Aadmi Party. In a BBC report, senior journalist Neerja Chaudhary says that Sandeep Dixit is vocal and aggressive about the Aam Aadmi Party but Congress is not able to create any narrative of its own in Delhi. However, at the national level, especially in the Lok Sabha elections held last year, it was seen that people want Congress to emerge as a counter force against BJP in the country.
If this happens then it may definitely get some Dalit and minority votes. But the problem is that the morale of Congress gets broken so quickly that as soon as they got defeated in Haryana and Maharashtra, they are not able to pick themselves up. This is the reason that Congress will play the role of vote cutter in Delhi more and more. That means Congress will cause harm to Aam Aadmi Party.
4-Congress is working on aggressive strategy instead of friendly fight with AAP.
While leaving Congress, perhaps Arvind Kejriwal was thinking that he would have a friendly fight with Congress against BJP. But perhaps this is not happening. Congress is entering the election field with all its might. The biggest example of this is that Congress has fielded Sandeep Dixit against Arvind Kejriwal and Alka Lamba against CM Atishi. Whereas during the Punjab Assembly elections, both the parties, despite contesting the elections separately, did not field tough candidates against each other on the winning seats. Not only this, Congress in Delhi is not hesitating to raise issues of corruption of the AAP government. Congress’s ax handle has also cornered the Delhi government on the Sheeshmahal issue. Congress is not silent on other issues also. The Aam Aadmi Party is being cornered fiercely.