After the clash in the Galwan in June 2020, there was heavy tension in India-China relations. Several rounds of meetings were held to end the dispute from both sides, after which the relationship between the two countries gradually started to be correct, but softening. Recently on the 75th anniversary of India-China bilateral relations, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that India-China relations should take the form of a dragon-hand tango.
Dragon China and elephant are considered a symbol of India and Jinping said that both countries should deepen cooperation in every field. Prior to this statement of Xi Jinping, in March, Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi said that there is natural differences between the two neighbors, but the devotion should not be transformed into controversy.
China was quite proud of this statement of PM Modi and Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning had said that China is ready to cooperate with India in every field so that there is good and stable relations between the two countries.
India-China relations were improving that a situation like a war between India and (friends of China) Pakistan has become. India alleges that Pakistan is involved in the terrorist attacks in Pahalgam last week, after which the two countries are going through heavy tension.
India’s proposed trade agreement with the US can also provoke China and the improvised relations of India-China may brake.
How will the Indo-US trade agreement affect India-China relations?
Pradeep Taneja, Senior Lecturer of Asian Studies at the University of Melbourne, says that the snow in India-China relations is melting but recent incidents can cause complications in the relationship between the two.
US President Donald Trump announced 26% of reciperook tariffs on India earlier this month. That is, after the tariff is implemented, the Indian goods reaching America will charge an additional 26% fee.
However, the tariff is currently a 90 -day ban, which is going to end in July. After the announcement of the tariff, India has stepped up the trade agreement with the US. Trump said on Tuesday that he hoped that India and the US will soon have a trade agreement.
Taneja said that India is a competitive market economy and has the right to attract export related investment. They say that but if an attempt was made to target China in the agreement with America, it will definitely have an impact on bilateral relations.
The Trump administration has announced a tariff on every country in the world that trade with America. But after this, he banned 90 days on the implementation of the tariff. Some big business colleagues of America are talking to Tariff, which includes India.
In the media reports that came out some time ago, it was said that Trump is planning to take advantage of the tariff talks. Reports said that Trump can pressurize its business partners to limit transactions with China through negotiations.
Some experts say that if the US includes such elements in the trade agreement with India which causes damage to China, then China will answer. Kanti Bajpayee, Professor of Asian Studies at Lee Kuan You School of Public Policy of National University of Singapore, says, “India cannot go much further to isolate China in terms of trade, so it will work hard to minimize the anti-China elements in a trade agreement with America.”
Bajpai said that China must have noticed the statements of India to indicate that China is not fair in trade. They say that this can affect the relations between China and India.
But he also emphasized that China needs India in the growing rivalry with America.
He said, ‘China wants to gain more and more support from Global South, Asian countries and European countries in confrontation with the US. Losing India completely will be like a loss in forming an alliance against the US for China. Of course, China knows that India will not become anti -America with it, but it does not want India to completely turn towards America.
India-Pakistan growing hostility is also impacting India-China relations
After the Pahalgam attack, tension between India and Pakistan is at its peak. When Pakistan is blamed for the attack, China has demanded that there should be a fair investigation into the incident. China has urged both countries to reduce stress.
Pradeep Taneja says that the China-India relationship will depend on how China reacts to the struggle.
He said, ‘If any country has any influence on Pakistan at this time, then it is China. China can respond by putting pressure on Pakistan. On the other hand, China can also respond by supporting Pakistan. And if this happens… then it will be a shock to improve bilateral relations between India and China.