The 12 -day war between Israel and Iran has now stopped. US President Donald Trump on Tuesday announced a ceasefire between the two countries. But the Israeli attack on Iran and American bombing has given the biggest challenge to the Islamic Republic in its 50 -year history. Even in the midst of this war, Washington and Tel Aviv openly indicated the murder of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.
How will Iran’s future be?
According to the Iranian media report, this shocking incident has forced the Iranians to look into the rapidly changing situation with mistrust. With decades of stagnation and broken expectations, Iranian citizens try to see the future of the country with both ambition and fear. Many people tremble with the possibility of a disintegrated country, some are worried that after the war, Iran may be converted into a failed state for decades, which can be warned by neighboring countries Iraq and Afghanistan.
After the war with Israel, if the religious system ends in Iran, then three types of sex can be made.
1. A faction within the army can capture power and create pressure for basic changes
2. Exempted opposition groups can get an important role with or without Western support
3. Alliance of domestic opponents may dominate
The rise of a radical state more than Khamenei in the form of fourth sainio is very less likely, but is not impossible. It is possible that it will be short -lived, as it will immediately start the tough attacks of America and Israel. This will give a shock to a public who is already fed up with the radical rule of the elderly leader.
With which policies will the country grow
Despite all its differences, these three potential senesia will have many similarities. They will be more secular and advocates of development. It is almost certain that they will stay away from the anti-West stance of the Republic of Islamic. The system installed by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and his successor is defined from religious rule, violent repression, corruption and mismanagement.
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In the history of Iran, very few governments have included so many flaws in the same system. Whatever sex will be formed among the three, it is very less likely that anyone will be able to compete with the Islamic Republic in such failures. Even the lowest Democratic Seario can potentially bring social freedom and economic development.
Will Iran become the next Syria, Iraq?
In recent years, many opponents of the Islamic Republic opposed the call for major changes, as they feared that Iran could get into chaos like war-torn Syria. Nevertheless, in recent months, Syrian rehabilitation in at least International Sainero has raised hope for some people.
Despite his previous connections with radical Islamic terrorist groups, the new Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sara associated the country with the West and put it forward on the path of possible development. US sanctions have been lifted and Syria is now on the verge of re -involving the global Swift banking system. American companies have taken steps to enter the country’s market rapidly. However, the situation is still critical and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last month that a civil war could soon sparked in Syria.
American model of development
By welcoming Syria, America wants to convey a message that countries leaving their enmity for the West can quickly come back to the global realm and get opportunities for prosperity. A version of this model was tried on the Korean peninsula in the 20th century, in which South Korea had the support of America against North Korea. After the Korean War, South Korea adopted Western alliances and democratic institutions, which transformed a poor, powerful state into modern, rich democracy.
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Washington and its associates can adopt a similar view to get Iran out of Chinese and Russian control. With the support of Western countries, the path of progress of Iran can be much easier than the long and stifling era of the last five decades under the Islamic Republic of Iran.
This model of development is also deeply associated with the aspirations of many Iranians. Tired of ideological quarrels, they wish for prosperity and also want respect. In the year 2022, the principle of normal life was repeated repeatedly in the demonstrations for women, life, freedom across the country.
Responsibility on the shoulders of the younger generation
The younger generation of Iran, which is an important force behind this movement, is a large part of this capacity. Since 1979, it has been the only group that has forced power to concessive in the hijab law, which has failed one of the main social agendas of the system. This generation is unlikely to bow down to any other dictatorship that wants to replace the Islamic Republic of this.
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Some Iranians are upset about the possible instability in Iran, citing the upheaval in Iraq after the US invasion in 2003. Nevertheless, Iran provoked that struggle to a great extent. It is not clear who will be interested in weakening the Iranian society of the future. In recent decades, some neighbors of Iran have preferred development above ideology in Persian Gulf.
Desire for development by leaving orthodoxy
In Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the rulers have tried to modernize their orthodox societies, while the Islamic Republic of Iran, the argument of religious rule in the house and abroad is still intact. The Islamic Revolution of 1979 marked a decisive moment in the region, which turned many countries towards Islamism and religious extremism. This wave reached other countries through Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, while furthering modernization efforts in 2017, said, “What happened in the last 30 years is not Saudi Arabia.” What happened in this area in the last 30 years is not middle East. A democratic Iran can serve as a powerful new model for the region, which may motivate other countries to move towards more open and accountable governance.